MINMIA
Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 5.0 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Simulation: Vikings win 7,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Dolphins 26th (-0.5).
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,480 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -7.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.7 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · MIA n/a | MIN 75% · MIA 25% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -304 · MIA +304 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 17, MIN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 24 and MIA by 8.
Side by side
| MIN | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 1-5 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | MIA 10 @ MIN 15 | MIN | MIN -10 |
| 2022-10-16 | 2022 Wk 6 | MIN 24 @ MIA 16 | MIN | MIN -3 |
| 2018-12-16 | 2018 Wk 15 | MIA 17 @ MIN 41 | MIN | MIN -7.5 |
| 2014-12-21 | 2014 Wk 16 | MIN 35 @ MIA 37 | MIA | MIA -4.5 |
| 2010-09-19 | 2010 Wk 2 | MIA 14 @ MIN 10 | MIA | MIN -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away