MINNE
Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Patriots win 5,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Patriots rank 6th (3.9), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Patriots rank 14th (5.6%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- History: Patriots won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Upset odds: Vikings win 4,880 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Patriots 10th (+2.4).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Vikings rank 1st (10.6%), Patriots 13th (7.0%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.7 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · NE n/a | MIN 49% · NE 51% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +105 · NE -105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 22, MIN 21.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 15 and NE by 17.
Side by side
| MIN | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 4-3 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-24 | 2022 Wk 12 | NE 26 @ MIN 33 | MIN | MIN -2.5 |
| 2018-12-02 | 2018 Wk 13 | MIN 10 @ NE 24 | NE | NE -6 |
| 2014-09-14 | 2014 Wk 2 | NE 30 @ MIN 7 | NE | NE -3.5 |
| 2010-10-31 | 2010 Wk 8 | MIN 18 @ NE 28 | NE | NE -5 |
| 2006-10-30 | 2006 Wk 8 | NE 31 @ MIN 7 | NE | NE -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away