MINPHI
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Simulation: Vikings win 6,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Eagles 21st (-0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,550 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 13 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Eagles rank 20th (7.1%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 40.5 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · PHI n/a | MIN 64% · PHI 36% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -182 · PHI +182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 17, MIN 22.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 21 and PHI by 13.
Side by side
| MIN | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | PHI 28 @ MIN 22 | PHI | PHI -2.5 |
| 2023-09-14 | 2023 Wk 2 | MIN 28 @ PHI 34 | PHI | PHI -6 |
| 2022-09-19 | 2022 Wk 2 | MIN 7 @ PHI 24 | PHI | PHI -2.5 |
| 2019-10-13 | 2019 Wk 6 | PHI 20 @ MIN 38 | MIN | MIN -3.5 |
| 2018-10-07 | 2018 Wk 5 | MIN 23 @ PHI 21 | MIN | PHI -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away