MINPIT
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Steelers 11th (+2.1).
- Simulation: Vikings win 5,250 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 0.7 points stronger.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Vikings rank 1st (10.6%), Steelers 14th (7.0%).
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Steelers win 4,750 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Steelers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 16 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Steelers rank 13th (3.7), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 40.7 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · PIT n/a | MIN 52% · PIT 48% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -111 · PIT +111 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 20, MIN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 17 and PIT by 16.
Side by side
| MIN | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 5-2 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | MIN 21 @ PIT 24 | PIT | MIN -2.5 |
| 2021-12-09 | 2021 Wk 14 | PIT 28 @ MIN 36 | MIN | MIN -3.5 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | MIN 9 @ PIT 26 | PIT | PIT -8.5 |
| 2013-09-29 | 2013 Wk 4 | PIT 27 @ MIN 34 | MIN | PIT -3 |
| 2009-10-25 | 2009 Wk 7 | MIN 17 @ PIT 27 | PIT | PIT -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away