MINSEA
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 6,380 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Vikings cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Seahawks rank 18th (6.6%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Upset odds: Vikings win 3,620 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.5 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · SEA n/a | MIN 36% · SEA 64% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +176 · SEA -176 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 23, MIN 17.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 11 and SEA by 21.
Side by side
| MIN | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 4-3 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | MIN 0 @ SEA 26 | SEA | SEA -12.5 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | MIN 27 @ SEA 24 | MIN | MIN -2.5 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | SEA 17 @ MIN 30 | MIN | SEA -2 |
| 2020-10-11 | 2020 Wk 5 | MIN 26 @ SEA 27 | SEA | SEA -6.5 |
| 2019-12-02 | 2019 Wk 13 | MIN 30 @ SEA 37 | SEA | SEA -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away