NEARI
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 3.5 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Cardinals -12.0.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,980 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: Patriots cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.6 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · ARI n/a | NE 70% · ARI 30% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -236 · ARI +236 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 21, NE 27.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 23 and ARI by 10.
Side by side
| NE | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | NE 17 @ ARI 30 | ARI | ARI -6 |
| 2022-12-12 | 2022 Wk 14 | NE 27 @ ARI 13 | NE | NE -2 |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 12 | ARI 17 @ NE 20 | NE | ARI -1 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | NE 23 @ ARI 21 | NE | ARI -9 |
| 2012-09-16 | 2012 Wk 2 | ARI 20 @ NE 18 | ARI | NE -13 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away