NEBAL
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Ravens rank 14th (+0.1), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Ravens win 5,200 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 0.5 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Ravens -6.0.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: Patriots win 4,800 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Ravens 17th (+0.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.3 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · BAL n/a | NE 48% · BAL 52% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +108 · BAL -108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 24, NE 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 15 and BAL by 17.
Side by side
| NE | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | NE 28 @ BAL 24 | NE | BAL -3.5 |
| 2022-09-25 | 2022 Wk 3 | BAL 37 @ NE 26 | BAL | BAL -2.5 |
| 2020-11-15 | 2020 Wk 10 | BAL 17 @ NE 23 | NE | BAL -7 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | NE 20 @ BAL 37 | BAL | NE -3 |
| 2016-12-12 | 2016 Wk 14 | BAL 23 @ NE 30 | NE | NE -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away