NEBUF
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 2.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 6,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Bills +1.0.
- Upset odds: Patriots win 3,890 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Patriots running game (16th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Patriots rank 13th (7.0%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.7 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · BUF n/a | NE 39% · BUF 61% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +157 · BUF -157 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 27, NE 24.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 13 and BUF by 21.
Side by side
| NE | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-1 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | NE 29 @ BUF 26 | NE | BUF -7 |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | BUF 35 @ NE 31 | BUF | BUF -2.5 |
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | NE 23 @ BUF 20 | NE | BUF -7.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | BUF 16 @ NE 23 | NE | BUF -3 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | NE 21 @ BUF 24 | BUF | BUF -14 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away