NECHI
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Simulation: Bears win 5,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Bears rank 18th (-0.1), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Patriots 13th (7.0%).
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Bears -3.3.
- Upset odds: Patriots win 4,550 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.5 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · CHI n/a | NE 46% · CHI 55% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +120 · CHI -120 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 24, NE 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 15 and CHI by 19.
Side by side
| NE | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 2026 Wk 7 | NE 24 @ CHI 30 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | NE 19 @ CHI 3 | NE | CHI -6.5 |
| 2022-10-24 | 2022 Wk 7 | CHI 33 @ NE 14 | CHI | NE -9.5 |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 Wk 7 | NE 38 @ CHI 31 | NE | NE -1 |
| 2014-10-26 | 2014 Wk 8 | CHI 23 @ NE 51 | NE | NE -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away