NECIN
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Bengals rank 8th (+0.5), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Simulation: Bengals win 5,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bengals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 1.0 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Patriots win 4,040 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Patriots rank 6th (3.9), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 13 or more.
- History: Patriots won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.9 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · CIN n/a | NE 40% · CIN 60% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +147 · CIN -147 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 26, NE 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 13 and CIN by 20.
Side by side
| NE | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | NE 26 @ CIN 20 | NE | NE -7.5 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | NE 16 @ CIN 10 | NE | CIN -8 |
| 2022-12-24 | 2022 Wk 16 | CIN 22 @ NE 18 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2019-12-15 | 2019 Wk 15 | NE 34 @ CIN 13 | NE | NE -10.5 |
| 2016-10-16 | 2016 Wk 6 | CIN 17 @ NE 35 | NE | NE -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away