NEJAX
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 6,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 1.2 points stronger.
- Home field: Jaguars play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Jaguars +1.3.
- Upset odds: Patriots win 3,810 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Jaguars defense that ranks 13th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 12 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Patriots rank 13th (7.0%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.2 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · JAX n/a | NE 38% · JAX 62% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +163 · JAX -163 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 25, NE 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 12 and JAX by 21.
Side by side
| NE | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | NE 6 @ JAX 35 | JAX | JAX -3 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | NE 16 @ JAX 32 | JAX | JAX -6.5 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | JAX 10 @ NE 50 | NE | NE -17.5 |
| 2018-09-16 | 2018 Wk 2 | NE 20 @ JAX 31 | JAX | NE -2 |
| 2018-01-21 | 2017 Conf. title | JAX 20 @ NE 24 | NE | NE -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away