NELV
New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Raiders -15.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 3.0 points stronger.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Simulation: Patriots win 6,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Upset odds: Raiders win 3,690 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Travel: Patriots cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.3 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · LV n/a | NE 63% · LV 37% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -171 · LV +171 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 23, NE 26.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 20 and LV by 13.
Side by side
| NE | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | LV 17 @ NE 45 | NE | NE -3.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | LV 20 @ NE 13 | LV | NE -2.5 |
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | NE 17 @ LV 21 | LV | LV -3 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | NE 24 @ LV 30 | LV | LV -1 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | LV 20 @ NE 36 | NE | NE -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away