NENYJ
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 3.1 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Jets -1.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Simulation: Patriots win 6,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Upset odds: Jets win 3,590 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.9 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · NYJ n/a | NE 64% · NYJ 36% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -179 · NYJ +179 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 20, NE 24.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 21 and NYJ by 12.
Side by side
| NE | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | NYJ 19 @ NE 26 | NE | NE -7.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | NE 42 @ NYJ 10 | NE | NE -12.5 |
| 2025-11-13 | 2025 Wk 11 | NYJ 14 @ NE 27 | NE | NE -12.5 |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | NYJ 22 @ NE 25 | NE | NYJ -7 |
| 2024-09-19 | 2024 Wk 3 | NE 3 @ NYJ 24 | NYJ | NYJ -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away