NEPIT
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Home field: Steelers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Steelers win 5,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Strength: Steelers rank 5th in turnover margin per game (+0.6).
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Patriots win 4,860 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 15 or more.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- History: Patriots won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 0.5 points stronger.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -0.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.2 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · PIT n/a | NE 49% · PIT 51% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +106 · PIT -106 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 23, NE 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 15 and PIT by 17.
Side by side
| NE | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | PIT 3 @ NE 20 | NE | NE -4.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | PIT 21 @ NE 14 | PIT | PIT -1.5 |
| 2023-12-07 | 2023 Wk 14 | NE 21 @ PIT 18 | NE | PIT -6 |
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | NE 17 @ PIT 14 | NE | NE -3 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | PIT 3 @ NE 33 | NE | NE -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away