NEWAS
New England Patriots @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 3.1 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Commanders -7.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Simulation: Patriots win 6,720 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Upset odds: Commanders win 3,280 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.8 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · WAS n/a | NE 67% · WAS 33% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -205 · WAS +205 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 21, NE 26.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 21 and WAS by 11.
Side by side
| NE | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | WAS 20 @ NE 17 | WAS | NE -2.5 |
| 2019-10-06 | 2019 Wk 5 | NE 33 @ WAS 7 | NE | NE -15.5 |
| 2015-11-08 | 2015 Wk 9 | WAS 10 @ NE 27 | NE | NE -13.5 |
| 2011-12-11 | 2011 Wk 14 | NE 34 @ WAS 27 | NE | NE -7.5 |
| 2007-10-28 | 2007 Wk 8 | WAS 7 @ NE 52 | NE | NE -15 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away