NOCAR
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Simulation: Panthers win 6,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 1.3 points stronger.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Saints 26th (2.9).
- Panthers running game (18th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,980 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Saints -3.0, Panthers -9.0.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Panthers 28th (4.0%).
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Panthers 31st (73.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 48 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · CAR n/a | NO 40% · CAR 60% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +151 · CAR -151 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 24, NO 22.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 13 and CAR by 20.
Side by side
| NO | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | CAR 17 @ NO 20 | NO | CAR -2.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | NO 17 @ CAR 7 | NO | CAR -5.5 |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | NO 22 @ CAR 23 | CAR | NO -7 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | CAR 10 @ NO 47 | NO | NO -3.5 |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | CAR 6 @ NO 28 | NO | NO -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away