NOCIN
New Orleans Saints @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 3.4 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Simulation: Bengals win 7,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 2,460 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Bengals 11th (54.5).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -8.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.2 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · CIN n/a | NO 25% · CIN 75% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +307 · CIN -307 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 28, NO 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 7 and CIN by 25.
Side by side
| NO | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-16 | 2022 Wk 6 | CIN 30 @ NO 26 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2018-11-11 | 2018 Wk 10 | NO 51 @ CIN 14 | NO | NO -5.5 |
| 2014-11-16 | 2014 Wk 11 | CIN 27 @ NO 10 | CIN | NO -8.5 |
| 2010-12-05 | 2010 Wk 13 | NO 34 @ CIN 30 | NO | NO -6.5 |
| 2006-11-19 | 2006 Wk 11 | CIN 31 @ NO 16 | CIN | NO -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away