NOGB
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 2.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Packers win 6,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Saints -3.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Packers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,060 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Packers 32nd (73.9).
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.9 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · GB n/a | NO 31% · GB 69% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +227 · GB -227 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 27, NO 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 10 and GB by 24.
Side by side
| NO | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-3 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-23 | 2024 Wk 16 | NO 0 @ GB 34 | GB | GB -14 |
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | NO 17 @ GB 18 | GB | NO -1.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | GB 3 @ NO 38 | NO | GB -4 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | GB 37 @ NO 30 | GB | NO -3.5 |
| 2017-10-22 | 2017 Wk 7 | NO 26 @ GB 17 | NO | NO -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away