NOHOU
New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 3.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Texans win 7,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Saints -3.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Texans rank 11th (+0.4), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Saints 26th (2.9).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Saints win 2,940 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Texans 28th (72.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Texans rank 31st in explosive plays allowed per game (4.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -6.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · HOU n/a | NO 29% · HOU 71% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +240 · HOU -240 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 26, NO 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 10 and HOU by 24.
Side by side
| NO | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | NO 13 @ HOU 20 | HOU | NO -2 |
| 2019-09-09 | 2019 Wk 1 | HOU 28 @ NO 30 | NO | NO -6.5 |
| 2015-11-29 | 2015 Wk 12 | NO 6 @ HOU 24 | HOU | HOU -3.5 |
| 2011-09-25 | 2011 Wk 3 | HOU 33 @ NO 40 | NO | NO -3.5 |
| 2007-11-18 | 2007 Wk 11 | NO 10 @ HOU 23 | HOU | HOU -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away