NOIND
New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndianapolis Colts
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Colts can win
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Simulation: Colts win 5,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 0.9 points stronger.
- Strength: Colts rank 1st in penalty yards per game (38.7).
Disadvantages Why the Colts may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 4,260 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Colts lose by 14 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Colts 20th (5.8%).
- History: Saints won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Colts rank 32nd in turnover margin per game (-1.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.8 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · IND n/a | NO 43% · IND 57% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +135 · IND -135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 24, NO 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 14 and IND by 20.
Side by side
| NO | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | NO 38 @ IND 27 | NO | NO -2 |
| 2019-12-16 | 2019 Wk 15 | IND 7 @ NO 34 | NO | NO -8 |
| 2015-10-25 | 2015 Wk 7 | NO 27 @ IND 21 | NO | IND -5.5 |
| 2011-10-23 | 2011 Wk 7 | IND 7 @ NO 62 | NO | NO -13.5 |
| 2010-02-07 | 2009 Super Bowl | NO 31 @ IND 17 | NO | IND -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away