NOJAX
New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 3.6 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 7,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 2,270 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 7 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Jaguars 25th (68.7).
- History: Saints won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -8.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.5 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · JAX n/a | NO 23% · JAX 77% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +340 · JAX -340 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 27, NO 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 7 and JAX by 27.
Side by side
| NO | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-19 | 2023 Wk 7 | JAX 31 @ NO 24 | JAX | NO -2.5 |
| 2019-10-13 | 2019 Wk 6 | NO 13 @ JAX 6 | NO | JAX -2.5 |
| 2015-12-27 | 2015 Wk 16 | JAX 27 @ NO 38 | NO | NO -2.5 |
| 2011-10-02 | 2011 Wk 4 | NO 23 @ JAX 10 | NO | NO -9 |
| 2007-11-04 | 2007 Wk 9 | JAX 24 @ NO 41 | NO | NO -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away