NOMIA
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NONew Orleans Saints
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Saints can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Saints about 2.3 points stronger.
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Simulation: Saints win 5,670 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Dolphins 30th (3.3%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to Saints in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Saints may not
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 4,330 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Saints lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Saints rank 30th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.03).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NO -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.4 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · MIA n/a | NO 57% · MIA 43% |
| Fair moneyline | NO -131 · MIA +131 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 21, NO 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 18 and MIA by 15.
Side by side
| NO | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-5 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | NO 17 @ MIA 21 | MIA | MIA -5.5 |
| 2021-12-27 | 2021 Wk 16 | MIA 20 @ NO 3 | MIA | MIA -3 |
| 2017-10-01 | 2017 Wk 4 | NO 20 @ MIA 0 | NO | NO -4 |
| 2013-09-30 | 2013 Wk 4 | MIA 17 @ NO 38 | NO | NO -7 |
| 2009-10-25 | 2009 Wk 7 | NO 46 @ MIA 34 | NO | NO -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away