NOMIN
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 2.6 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Simulation: Vikings win 7,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Saints 28th (-0.6).
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 2,580 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Saints rank 13th (5.2%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -7.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 44 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · MIN n/a | NO 26% · MIN 74% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +287 · MIN -287 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 24, NO 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 8 and MIN by 24.
Side by side
| NO | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-0 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | MIN 23 @ NO 13 | MIN | MIN -2.5 |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | NO 19 @ MIN 27 | MIN | NO -3 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | MIN 28 @ NO 25 | MIN | MIN -4 |
| 2020-12-25 | 2020 Wk 16 | MIN 33 @ NO 52 | NO | NO -6.5 |
| 2020-01-05 | 2019 Wild Card | MIN 26 @ NO 20 | MIN | NO -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away