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New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Saints -3.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 2.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Patriots win 7,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 2,880 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Patriots 20th (61.1).
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 22nd in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (+0.10).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.4 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · NE n/a | NO 29% · NE 71% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +247 · NE -247 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 27, NO 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 9 and NE by 24.
Side by side
| NO | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | NE 25 @ NO 19 | NE | NE -3.5 |
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | NO 34 @ NE 0 | NO | NE -2.5 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | NO 28 @ NE 13 | NO | NE -3 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | NE 36 @ NO 20 | NE | NE -5.5 |
| 2013-10-13 | 2013 Wk 6 | NO 27 @ NE 30 | NE | NE -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away