NONYJ
New Orleans Saints @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYJNew York Jets
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jets can win
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Jets win 5,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Strength: Jets rank 4th in pass rush, sacks per dropback (8.2%).
Disadvantages Why the Jets may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 4,670 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Saints about 0.8 points stronger.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Saints rank 13th (5.2%), Jets 27th (9.2%).
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Jets 26th (69.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jets lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYJ -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · NYJ n/a | NO 47% · NYJ 53% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +114 · NYJ -114 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 23, NO 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 15 and NYJ by 18.
Side by side
| NO | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | NYJ 6 @ NO 29 | NO | NO -6.5 |
| 2021-12-12 | 2021 Wk 14 | NO 30 @ NYJ 9 | NO | NO -4.5 |
| 2017-12-17 | 2017 Wk 15 | NYJ 19 @ NO 31 | NO | NO -16.5 |
| 2013-11-03 | 2013 Wk 9 | NO 20 @ NYJ 26 | NYJ | NO -6 |
| 2009-10-04 | 2009 Wk 4 | NYJ 10 @ NO 24 | NO | NO -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away