NOTB
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Saints -3.0.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 6,240 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,760 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Saints rank 13th (5.2%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 31st in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.20).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Buccaneers 18th (6.1%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.4 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · TB n/a | NO 38% · TB 62% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +166 · TB -166 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 24, NO 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 12 and TB by 21.
Side by side
| NO | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | NO 24 @ TB 20 | NO | TB -7.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | TB 23 @ NO 3 | TB | TB -4.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | NO 19 @ TB 27 | TB | TB -14.5 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | TB 51 @ NO 27 | TB | TB -3.5 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2023 Wk 17 | NO 23 @ TB 13 | NO | TB -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away