NOTEN
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NONew Orleans Saints
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Saints can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Saints about 2.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: Saints win 5,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Saints in our ratings.
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Strength: Saints rank 2nd in penalty yards per game (43.6).
Disadvantages Why the Saints may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 4,170 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Titans running game (22nd in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Saints lose by 14 or more.
- Turnover margin per game: Titans rank 21st (-0.4), Saints 28th (-0.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NO -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 44 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · TEN n/a | NO 58% · TEN 42% |
| Fair moneyline | NO -140 · TEN +140 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 20, NO 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 18 and TEN by 14.
Side by side
| NO | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-6 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | NO 34 @ TEN 26 | NO | NO -1.5 |
| 2023-09-10 | 2023 Wk 1 | TEN 15 @ NO 16 | NO | NO -3 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | NO 21 @ TEN 23 | TEN | TEN -3 |
| 2019-12-22 | 2019 Wk 16 | NO 38 @ TEN 28 | NO | NO -3.5 |
| 2015-11-08 | 2015 Wk 9 | TEN 34 @ NO 28 | TEN | NO -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away