NOWAS
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Commanders
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Commanders can win
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Commanders win 5,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Commanders rank 16th (3.7), Saints 26th (2.9).
Disadvantages Why the Commanders may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 4,940 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Saints running game (24th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Saints about 0.7 points stronger.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Commanders 23rd (4.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Commanders lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -0.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.1 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · WAS n/a | NO 49% · WAS 51% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +102 · WAS -102 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 24, NO 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 16 and WAS by 17.
Side by side
| NO | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | WAS 20 @ NO 19 | WAS | WAS -7.5 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | NO 33 @ WAS 22 | NO | NO -2.5 |
| 2018-10-08 | 2018 Wk 5 | WAS 19 @ NO 43 | NO | NO -5.5 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | WAS 31 @ NO 34 | NO | NO -9.5 |
| 2015-11-15 | 2015 Wk 10 | NO 14 @ WAS 47 | WAS | NO -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away