NYGATL
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Simulation: Falcons win 6,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Falcons about 1.8 points stronger.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 3,690 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Falcons rank 25th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.07).
- Weak spot: Falcons rank 23rd in offense, EPA per play (-0.04).
- Weak spot: Falcons rank 22nd in pass rush, sacks per dropback (5.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · ATL n/a | NYG 37% · ATL 63% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +171 · ATL -171 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 24, NYG 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 11 and ATL by 21.
Side by side
| NYG | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | NYG 7 @ ATL 34 | ATL | ATL -9.5 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | ATL 17 @ NYG 14 | ATL | NYG -3 |
| 2018-10-22 | 2018 Wk 7 | NYG 20 @ ATL 23 | ATL | ATL -4.5 |
| 2015-09-20 | 2015 Wk 2 | ATL 24 @ NYG 20 | ATL | NYG -2 |
| 2014-10-05 | 2014 Wk 5 | ATL 20 @ NYG 30 | NYG | NYG -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away