NYGCAR
New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 2.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Panthers win 6,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Giants -0.3, Panthers -9.0.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Giants win 3,850 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Giants rank 17th (+0.3), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · CAR n/a | NYG 38% · CAR 62% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +160 · CAR -160 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 24, NYG 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 13 and CAR by 21.
Side by side
| NYG | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | NYG 17 @ CAR 20 | CAR | NYG -6.5 |
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | CAR 16 @ NYG 19 | NYG | CAR -1 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | CAR 3 @ NYG 25 | NYG | CAR -3 |
| 2018-10-07 | 2018 Wk 5 | NYG 31 @ CAR 33 | CAR | CAR -7 |
| 2015-12-20 | 2015 Wk 15 | CAR 38 @ NYG 35 | CAR | CAR -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away