NYGDET
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 5.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Lions win 7,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Giants -0.3.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 11th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Giants passing game (18th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,650 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.2 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · DET n/a | NYG 26% · DET 74% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +278 · DET -278 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 29, NYG 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 8 and DET by 24.
Side by side
| NYG | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | NYG 27 @ DET 34 | DET | DET -14 |
| 2022-11-20 | 2022 Wk 11 | DET 31 @ NYG 18 | DET | NYG -3 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | NYG 26 @ DET 31 | DET | DET -6.5 |
| 2017-09-18 | 2017 Wk 2 | DET 24 @ NYG 10 | DET | NYG -3 |
| 2016-12-18 | 2016 Wk 15 | DET 6 @ NYG 17 | NYG | NYG -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away