NYGHOU
New York Giants @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 4.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Texans win 7,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Giants -0.3.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Giants 29th (3.9%).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,730 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 8 or more.
- History: Giants won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -6.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · HOU n/a | NYG 27% · HOU 73% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +266 · HOU -266 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 25, NYG 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 8 and HOU by 24.
Side by side
| NYG | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | NYG 27 @ HOU 21 | NYG | HOU -10 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | HOU 16 @ NYG 24 | NYG | NYG -5.5 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | NYG 27 @ HOU 22 | NYG | HOU -6.5 |
| 2014-09-21 | 2014 Wk 3 | HOU 17 @ NYG 30 | NYG | NYG -1 |
| 2010-10-10 | 2010 Wk 5 | NYG 34 @ HOU 10 | NYG | HOU -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away