NYGKC
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 5.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 7,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Giants 17th (+0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,340 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 28th in field goal percentage (68.8%).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.1 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · KC n/a | NYG 23% · KC 77% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +328 · KC -328 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 27, NYG 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 7 and KC by 26.
Side by side
| NYG | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | KC 22 @ NYG 9 | KC | KC -6 |
| 2021-11-01 | 2021 Wk 8 | NYG 17 @ KC 20 | KC | KC -10.5 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | KC 9 @ NYG 12 | NYG | KC -10 |
| 2013-09-29 | 2013 Wk 4 | NYG 7 @ KC 31 | KC | KC -3.5 |
| 2009-10-04 | 2009 Wk 4 | NYG 27 @ KC 16 | NYG | NYG -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away