NYGLA
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 5.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Travel: Giants cross 3 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,230 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Giants rank 20th (-0.3), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Rams 17th (3.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 7 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -9.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.8 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · LA n/a | NYG 22% · LA 78% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +349 · LA -349 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 28, NYG 19.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 7 and LA by 27.
Side by side
| NYG | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 2026 Wk 2 | NYG 6 @ LA 28 | LA | LA -6.5 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2023 Wk 17 | LA 26 @ NYG 25 | LA | LA -6 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | LA 38 @ NYG 11 | LA | LA -7.5 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | NYG 9 @ LA 17 | LA | LA -13.5 |
| 2017-11-05 | 2017 Wk 9 | LA 51 @ NYG 17 | LA | LA -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away