NYGMIA
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYGNew York Giants
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Giants can win
- Giants passing game (18th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Point differential per game: Giants rank 17th (+0.3), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Giants in our ratings.
- Simulation: Giants win 5,380 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Giants about 1.0 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Giants may not
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 4,620 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYG -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.2 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · MIA n/a | NYG 54% · MIA 46% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG -117 · MIA +117 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 21, NYG 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 17 and MIA by 16.
Side by side
| NYG | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 1-5 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | NYG 16 @ MIA 31 | MIA | MIA -12.5 |
| 2021-12-05 | 2021 Wk 13 | NYG 9 @ MIA 20 | MIA | MIA -6.5 |
| 2019-12-15 | 2019 Wk 15 | MIA 20 @ NYG 36 | NYG | NYG -3.5 |
| 2015-12-14 | 2015 Wk 14 | NYG 31 @ MIA 24 | NYG | NYG -2.5 |
| 2011-10-30 | 2011 Wk 8 | MIA 17 @ NYG 20 | NYG | NYG -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away