NYGMIN
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 3.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Vikings win 7,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Giants 17th (+0.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Vikings in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,460 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -7.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.7 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · MIN n/a | NYG 25% · MIN 75% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +306 · MIN -306 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 24, NYG 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 8 and MIN by 25.
Side by side
| NYG | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 6-0 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | MIN 16 @ NYG 13 | MIN | MIN -2.5 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | MIN 28 @ NYG 6 | MIN | MIN -1 |
| 2023-01-15 | 2022 Wild Card | NYG 31 @ MIN 24 | NYG | MIN -2.5 |
| 2022-12-24 | 2022 Wk 16 | NYG 24 @ MIN 27 | MIN | MIN -4.5 |
| 2019-10-06 | 2019 Wk 5 | MIN 28 @ NYG 10 | MIN | MIN -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away