NYGNYJ
New York Giants @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYJNew York Jets
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jets can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Giants 29th (3.9%).
- Simulation: Jets win 5,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
Disadvantages Why the Jets may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 4,600 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Jets 23rd (3.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Giants in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jets lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Jets rank 27th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.14).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYJ -1.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · NYJ n/a | NYG 46% · NYJ 54% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +117 · NYJ -117 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 23, NYG 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 14 and NYJ by 18.
Side by side
| NYG | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | NYJ 13 @ NYG 10 | NYJ | NYJ -3 |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 10 | NYG 27 @ NYJ 34 | NYJ | NYG -3 |
| 2015-12-06 | 2015 Wk 13 | NYJ 23 @ NYG 20 | NYJ | NYJ -2 |
| 2011-12-24 | 2011 Wk 16 | NYG 29 @ NYJ 14 | NYG | NYJ -1.5 |
| 2007-10-07 | 2007 Wk 5 | NYJ 24 @ NYG 35 | NYG | NYG -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away