NYGPIT
New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 3.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Steelers win 6,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Giants -0.3.
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 3,120 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 10 or more.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Steelers 13th (3.7).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.2 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · PIT n/a | NYG 31% · PIT 69% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +221 · PIT -221 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 24, NYG 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 10 and PIT by 23.
Side by side
| NYG | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-28 | 2024 Wk 8 | NYG 18 @ PIT 26 | PIT | PIT -6 |
| 2020-09-14 | 2020 Wk 1 | PIT 26 @ NYG 16 | PIT | PIT -6 |
| 2016-12-04 | 2016 Wk 13 | NYG 14 @ PIT 24 | PIT | PIT -7 |
| 2012-11-04 | 2012 Wk 9 | PIT 24 @ NYG 20 | PIT | NYG -3.5 |
| 2008-10-26 | 2008 Wk 8 | NYG 21 @ PIT 14 | NYG | PIT -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away