NYGSEA
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
81% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 81% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 5.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 8,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Giants 17th (+0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Giants win 1,890 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Seahawks 17th (3.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 6 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -10.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · SEA n/a | NYG 19% · SEA 81% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +430 · SEA -430 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 27, NYG 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 6 and SEA by 27.
Side by side
| NYG | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | NYG 29 @ SEA 20 | NYG | SEA -7 |
| 2023-10-02 | 2023 Wk 4 | SEA 24 @ NYG 3 | SEA | SEA -2.5 |
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | NYG 13 @ SEA 27 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2020-12-06 | 2020 Wk 13 | NYG 17 @ SEA 12 | NYG | SEA -11 |
| 2017-10-22 | 2017 Wk 7 | SEA 24 @ NYG 7 | SEA | SEA -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away