NYGTEN
New York Giants @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYGNew York Giants
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Giants can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to Giants in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Titans 31st (2.0).
- Point differential per game: Giants rank 17th (+0.3), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Simulation: Giants win 5,690 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Giants -0.3, Titans -6.7.
Disadvantages Why the Giants may not
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Upset odds: Titans win 4,310 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Giants 29th (3.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYG -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.7 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · TEN n/a | NYG 57% · TEN 43% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG -132 · TEN +132 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 20, NYG 22.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 18 and TEN by 14.
Side by side
| NYG | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 1-6 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | TEN 7 @ NYG 12 | NYG | NYG -2.5 |
| 2022-09-11 | 2022 Wk 1 | NYG 21 @ TEN 20 | NYG | TEN -5.5 |
| 2018-12-16 | 2018 Wk 15 | TEN 17 @ NYG 0 | TEN | TEN -2.5 |
| 2014-12-07 | 2014 Wk 14 | NYG 36 @ TEN 7 | NYG | NYG -3 |
| 2010-09-26 | 2010 Wk 3 | TEN 29 @ NYG 10 | TEN | NYG -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away