NYGWAS
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Commanders
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Commanders can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Giants 20th (-0.3).
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
Disadvantages Why the Commanders may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 4,870 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Giants -0.3, Commanders -7.7.
- Point differential per game: Giants rank 17th (+0.3), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Giants in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.9 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · WAS n/a | NYG 49% · WAS 51% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +105 · WAS -105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 24, NYG 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 16 and WAS by 17.
Side by side
| NYG | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | NYG 27 @ WAS 27 | Tie | WAS -3.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | WAS 29 @ NYG 21 | WAS | NYG -2.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | NYG 6 @ WAS 21 | WAS | WAS -6 |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | WAS 27 @ NYG 22 | WAS | WAS -4.5 |
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | NYG 18 @ WAS 21 | WAS | WAS -1.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away