NYJARI
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYJNew York Jets
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jets can win
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jets -1.7, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Jets in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Jets rank 21st (-1.9), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Simulation: Jets win 5,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Jets may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 4,890 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Jets cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Jets 27th (9.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jets lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYJ -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.4 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · ARI n/a | NYJ 51% · ARI 49% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ -104 · ARI +104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 23, NYJ 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 17 and ARI by 16.
Side by side
| NYJ | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | NYJ 6 @ ARI 31 | ARI | NYJ -2 |
| 2020-10-11 | 2020 Wk 5 | ARI 30 @ NYJ 10 | ARI | ARI -7 |
| 2016-10-17 | 2016 Wk 6 | NYJ 3 @ ARI 28 | ARI | ARI -7.5 |
| 2012-12-02 | 2012 Wk 13 | ARI 6 @ NYJ 7 | NYJ | NYJ -6 |
| 2008-09-28 | 2008 Wk 4 | ARI 35 @ NYJ 56 | NYJ | NYJ -1.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away