NYJBUF
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 5.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 7,780 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Bills in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Jets 21st (-1.9).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,220 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 7 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -9.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.5 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · BUF n/a | NYJ 22% · BUF 78% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +351 · BUF -351 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 29, NYJ 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 7 and BUF by 27.
Side by side
| NYJ | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-1 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | NYJ 8 @ BUF 35 | BUF | BUF -12.5 |
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | BUF 30 @ NYJ 10 | BUF | BUF -6 |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | NYJ 14 @ BUF 40 | BUF | BUF -10 |
| 2024-10-14 | 2024 Wk 6 | BUF 23 @ NYJ 20 | BUF | BUF -1 |
| 2023-11-19 | 2023 Wk 11 | NYJ 6 @ BUF 32 | BUF | BUF -8 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away