NYJCAR
New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 2.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Panthers win 6,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Jets 23rd (3.0).
- History: Panthers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jets -1.7, Panthers -9.0.
- Upset odds: Jets win 3,700 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Panthers 28th (4.0%).
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 18th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.5 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · CAR n/a | NYJ 37% · CAR 63% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +170 · CAR -170 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 24, NYJ 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 12 and CAR by 21.
Side by side
| NYJ | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | CAR 13 @ NYJ 6 | CAR | NYJ -1.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | NYJ 14 @ CAR 19 | CAR | CAR -3.5 |
| 2017-11-26 | 2017 Wk 12 | CAR 35 @ NYJ 27 | CAR | CAR -5.5 |
| 2013-12-15 | 2013 Wk 15 | NYJ 20 @ CAR 30 | CAR | CAR -10 |
| 2009-11-29 | 2009 Wk 12 | CAR 6 @ NYJ 17 | NYJ | NYJ -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away