NYJCIN
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 4.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bengals win 7,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Jets 21st (-1.9).
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,390 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · CIN n/a | NYJ 24% · CIN 76% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +318 · CIN -318 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 27, NYJ 19.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 7 and CIN by 26.
Side by side
| NYJ | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | NYJ 39 @ CIN 38 | NYJ | CIN -5.5 |
| 2022-09-25 | 2022 Wk 3 | CIN 27 @ NYJ 12 | CIN | CIN -6.5 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | CIN 31 @ NYJ 34 | NYJ | CIN -11.5 |
| 2019-12-01 | 2019 Wk 13 | NYJ 6 @ CIN 22 | CIN | NYJ -2.5 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | CIN 23 @ NYJ 22 | CIN | NYJ -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away