NYJCLE
New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Browns
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Browns can win
- Simulation: Browns win 5,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.3 points to Browns in our ratings.
- Strength: Browns rank 6th in pass rush, sacks per dropback (7.8%).
- Penalty yards per game: Browns rank 17th (60.0), Jets 26th (69.0).
Disadvantages Why the Browns may not
- Upset odds: Jets win 4,430 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Browns lose by 14 or more.
- History: Jets won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Browns rank 32nd in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (10.6%).
- Weak spot: Browns rank 28th in points per game (19.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.1 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · CLE n/a | NYJ 44% · CLE 56% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +126 · CLE -126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 21, NYJ 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 14 and CLE by 18.
Side by side
| NYJ | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | CLE 12 @ NYJ 17 | NYJ | NYJ -2.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | CLE 20 @ NYJ 27 | NYJ | CLE -1.5 |
| 2023-12-28 | 2023 Wk 17 | NYJ 20 @ CLE 37 | CLE | CLE -6.5 |
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | NYJ 31 @ CLE 30 | NYJ | CLE -6.5 |
| 2020-12-27 | 2020 Wk 16 | CLE 16 @ NYJ 23 | NYJ | CLE -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away