NYJGB
New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 3.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Packers win 7,290 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Jets -1.7.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,710 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Packers rank 32nd in penalty yards per game (73.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -6.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · GB n/a | NYJ 27% · GB 73% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +269 · GB -269 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 26, NYJ 18.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 9 and GB by 24.
Side by side
| NYJ | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-3 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | GB 20 @ NYJ 17 | GB | GB -3.5 |
| 2022-10-16 | 2022 Wk 6 | NYJ 27 @ GB 10 | NYJ | GB -7.5 |
| 2018-12-23 | 2018 Wk 16 | GB 44 @ NYJ 38 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2014-09-14 | 2014 Wk 2 | NYJ 24 @ GB 31 | GB | GB -7 |
| 2010-10-31 | 2010 Wk 8 | GB 9 @ NYJ 0 | GB | NYJ -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away