NYJKC
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 4.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 7,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Jets 21st (-1.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,190 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 28th in field goal percentage (68.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · KC n/a | NYJ 22% · KC 78% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +356 · KC -356 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 26, NYJ 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 7 and KC by 26.
Side by side
| NYJ | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-1 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | KC 23 @ NYJ 20 | KC | KC -9.5 |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 Wk 8 | NYJ 9 @ KC 35 | KC | KC -20 |
| 2017-12-03 | 2017 Wk 13 | KC 31 @ NYJ 38 | NYJ | KC -3.5 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | NYJ 3 @ KC 24 | KC | KC -3 |
| 2014-11-02 | 2014 Wk 9 | NYJ 10 @ KC 24 | KC | KC -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away