NYJMIA
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYJNew York Jets
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jets can win
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jets about 1.6 points stronger.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Dolphins 30th (3.3%).
- Simulation: Jets win 5,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Jets rank 21st (-1.9), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
Disadvantages Why the Jets may not
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 4,490 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jets lose by 15 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Jets 26th (69.0).
- History: Dolphins won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYJ -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.9 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · MIA n/a | NYJ 55% · MIA 45% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ -123 · MIA +123 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 20, NYJ 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 18 and MIA by 15.
Side by side
| NYJ | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-5 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | MIA 28 @ NYJ 25 | MIA | NYJ -3.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | MIA 34 @ NYJ 10 | MIA | MIA -2.5 |
| 2025-09-29 | 2025 Wk 4 | NYJ 21 @ MIA 27 | MIA | MIA -2.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | MIA 20 @ NYJ 32 | NYJ | NYJ -1.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | NYJ 26 @ MIA 32 | MIA | MIA -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away