NYJMIN
New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 3.3 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Jets 21st (-1.9).
- Simulation: Vikings win 7,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Jets -1.7.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,480 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.5 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · MIN n/a | NYJ 25% · MIN 75% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +304 · MIN -304 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 24, NYJ 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 7 and MIN by 25.
Side by side
| NYJ | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-0 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | NYJ 17 @ MIN 23 | MIN | MIN -2.5 |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | NYJ 22 @ MIN 27 | MIN | MIN -3 |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 Wk 7 | MIN 37 @ NYJ 17 | MIN | MIN -3.5 |
| 2014-12-07 | 2014 Wk 14 | NYJ 24 @ MIN 30 | MIN | MIN -4.5 |
| 2010-10-11 | 2010 Wk 5 | MIN 20 @ NYJ 29 | NYJ | NYJ -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away